Ken Paxton’s US Senate campaign has become the leakiest ship in the shipping business.
In less than two weeks, five news outlets have published audio of the Republican nominee speaking privately to donors and lobbyists in Washington. On the recordings, he blames President Donald Trump’s midterm convention for his poll numbers, says Washington is steering his campaign, points to the Iran war and gas prices, calls for cuts to federal benefits and accuses Republican Sen. John Cornyn, whom he beat in the Republican primary earlier this year, of wanting him to lose.
Each clip has landed separately, keeping Paxton’s own words in the headlines for more than a week, and they come as most polls show him trailing Democrat James Talarico. Political scientists say the recordings expose the strain inside a campaign that’s struggling to find its footing, and that the drip of leaks has made it harder for Paxton to talk about anything else.
The New York Times published the first clip in late September. Asked whether Trump was “a little bit of a drag,” Paxton said, “the numbers—when we did that convention—it dropped our numbers,” according to the Times. “Everybody’s numbers dropped.”
On Oct. 5, Politico reported audio of Paxton saying he’d “never been in a race where I felt less control over the campaign… because it’s all coming—you know—from D.C.” The Times and Politico both said their recordings came from an attendee who opposes Paxton’s bid. Paxton’s campaign adviser Nick Maddux told Politico that Paxton was referring to super PACs, which can’t coordinate with campaigns, not Trump, as others have speculated.
Two days later, Axios published a third clip from the same fundraiser. Asked what was dragging down his campaign, Paxton said, “It’s the war, it’s gas prices, it’s diesel,” calling affordability “by far our biggest problem.” A campaign spokesperson called it “a non-story.” The audio dropped hours before Trump rallied with Paxton in San Antonio.
On Oct. 8, The Texas Tribune reported audio from a lunch with Washington lobbyists in which Paxton said, “There’s no doubt we have to cut some of the mandatory spending,” adding, “We have to suck it up.” About three-quarters of mandatory federal spending goes to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Paxton didn’t say which programs he would cut.
And on Friday, CNN reported a fifth clip in which Paxton said Cornyn, whom he defeated in the Republican primary, is “clearly not helping” and “wants me to lose.” Paxton recounted a story of Cornyn allegedly telling a friend at a Dallas restaurant that Republicans needed to learn “their decisions have consequences.” A Cornyn spokesperson said the conversation never happened. Maddux said Paxton has “called, texted, and offered to have a conversation” with Cornyn.
What Paxton’s leaks mean
As has long been acknowledged, leaks coming out of a campaign are a sign it’s struggling: with erosion of internal trust or morale, loss of narrative control, or psychological damage to a candidate.
Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, told the Dallas Observer Republican messaging has been fractured throughout the race, and the leaks have pushed it further off course.
“So for Paxton, the question is not just how do we respond to these leaks, but what do we want to talk about that’s not these leaks?” Rottinghaus said.
Parker Hevron, a political science professor at Texas Woman’s University, told the Observer he wasn’t sure how much more damage could be done to Paxton’s image, given the scandals voters already know about.
The leaks have arrived at a difficult moment. A YouGov poll of likely voters released Wednesday showed Talarico leading Paxton 50% to 44%.
Paxton has also yet to agree to debate Talarico.
Early voting runs Oct. 19–30. Election Day is Nov. 3.
