The Texas GOP is tearing itself apart over two men who would vote the exact same way.
They’re both Texas Republicans who claim the mantle of Donald Trump. Both want the same Senate seat. They cannot stand each other. Ditto their voter bases.
On May 26, four-term US Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton will meet in a Republican primary runoff that has become one of the most expensive, divisive, and closely watched political contests in the country. To their supporters, the race is not just a primary fight. It is a stress test for the modern Republican Party—and for Texas itself.
It probably shouldn’t be. The choice between the two offers a distinction without a difference.
The two men represent genuinely different styles, different temperaments, and different Republican tribes. What they do not represent is a genuine difference in policy or politics. As one Republican strategist put it plainly, this is a contest between two guys “who will vote with Trump all the time.” The battle consuming the Texas Republican Party—and threatening to hand Democrats their best shot at a statewide seat in more than 30 years—is, at its core, a fight over personality, not principle.
Cornyn looks, talks, and acts like a senator from a different era—polished, institutionalist and temperamentally suited to the kind of bipartisan dealmaking that once defined the job. He is a legislator who has spent two decades building coalitions and accumulating institutional power.
Paxton is his mirror image: a flamethrower whose MAGA credentials were forged not in the Senate cloakroom but in FBI raids and an impeachment trial—experiences he has worn as badges of honor, casting himself as a conservative martyr in the mold of Trump himself. He has made his name through confrontation and has the legal record to show for it.
That contrast has split the Texas Republican Party clean in two. It has grown so bitter Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick is now publicly imploring whichever side loses to fall in line behind the Republican nominee in November’s general election against Democratic candidate James Talarico.
The case against Paxton
Cornyn’s central argument is simple: Paxton is unelectable and unfit.
The receipts are considerable. Paxton was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on 16 charges of bribery, abuse of office and obstruction—charges more than 70% of his own party supported. A House investigating committee found he had abused his office by aiding a political donor in exchange for home renovations and gave a job to a woman he was having an affair with. His wife of 38 years, state Sen. Angela Paxton, filed for divorce in July 2025, citing adultery.
His legal troubles stretch back further. Shortly after taking office in 2015, Paxton was indicted on state securities fraud charges. In 2024, he settled with prosecutors, agreeing to pay $300,000 in restitution to avoid trial. In 2025, four former top aides who accused him of corruption were awarded $6.6 million after a judge ruled his office had violated the Texas Whistleblower Act.
But like his political mentor, none of it has stuck where it counts—with his voters. The Biden Justice Department’s decision not to prosecute Paxton on federal corruption charges acted as a political heat shield, letting him recast every accusation as a witch hunt. “Paxton’s problems aren’t just an issue in a Republican primary; they also threaten to put the Senate seat at risk … ,” a Cornyn campaign memo warned. He may not be wrong, but a March poll shows both he and his nemesis trailing Talarico in the general.
The case against Cornyn
Paxton’s argument is equally blunt: Cornyn is a creature of Washington who has betrayed Texas conservatives at every turn.
To Paxton’s supporters, the ammunition is real. Cornyn supported US aid to Ukraine. He backed the DREAM Act for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipients. Most damaging of all, he played a leading role in passing a bipartisan gun safety bill in the wake of the Uvalde school massacre—earning him a chorus of boos at the 2022 Texas Republican convention, and a RINO, or Republican in name only, label from Trump himself. Outside groups backing Paxton have hammered the incumbent with ads highlighting past comments in which Cornyn suggested Trump was not the most electable presidential candidate in 2024.
In contrast, Paxton’s devotion to Trump knows no bounds. He endorsed the embattled president for a third term at his lowest, in 2022, when others (like Cornyn) had left him for dead politically. He played a key role in the Trump’s failed efforts to overturn the 2020 election, and even spoke at the Jan. 6, 2021, rally that preceded the attack on the Capitol.
For Cornyn: The RINO accusation is an interesting one given his longtime conservative voting record. If John Cornyn is a RINO, so too are most Texas Republicans. The label is one of those ill-defined terms that can vary greatly from Republican to Republican.
What the criticism really reflects is a faction of the party that has moved significantly to the right during Cornyn’s tenure. He is a conservative by most objective measures—as his own ads tout, he has voted with President Trump 99% of the time. But his willingness to sometimes work across the aisle on specific issues has made him a target. This is an era when bipartisanship itself is treated as a disqualifying offense by a significant portion of the Republican base, the same portion whose support Cornyn lost in polling after his gun safety bill.
Why it probably doesn’t matter
Strip away the sharp elbows, the dueling AI attack ads and the competing claims of Trump loyalty, and what remains is a race between two men who would almost certainly cast the same votes in the United States Senate.
Both support Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) efforts and stricter immigration laws. Both oppose abortion rights. Both back Trump’s agenda, which has been a disaster for the Texas economy. The filibuster fight that briefly consumed the runoff—in which Paxton demanded Cornyn support eliminating the 60-vote threshold to pass the SAVE America Act, and Cornyn eventually reversed his position and said he would—illustrated the dynamic perfectly. Cornyn moved toward Paxton’s position.
The money has flowed heavily to Cornyn. He and his allies spent nearly $70 million for him to survive the first round of voting. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the Republican establishment have urged Trump to endorse Cornyn, arguing Paxton would drain national GOP resources in the general election.
But Paxton’s support comes from the grassroots—hard-right activists, MAGA true believers, and outside groups like Lone Star Liberty PAC. Political consultant Bill Miller, who has advised both parties, told Houston Public Media the runoff structure favors Paxton. “The runoff will be the hardcore primary voters, and that’s his base,” he said. “He’ll be extraordinarily difficult to defeat” in a runoff. He may be right. The latest polling shows Paxton leading Cornyn by eight points.
The question voters have to answer on May 26 isn’t really about ideology. Ultimately, Texas Republicans are spending millions to decide which Trump loyalist to send to Washington.
