Texas hasn’t sent a Democrat to the US Senate since 1988. But a statistical dead heat in the polls in this year’s contest—and a Republican nominee carrying more legal and personal baggage than any major Texas candidate in memory—has made the race genuinely competitive for the first time in a generation.
The Democrat: James Talarico
James Talarico, 37, is a Round Rock-born former middle school teacher, education nonprofit leader, and Presbyterian seminarian. An eighth-generation Texan, Talarico taught sixth-grade language arts at Jeremiah Rhodes Middle School on the west side of San Antonio—one of the poorest zip codes in Texas—before entering politics. He earned a bachelor’s degree in government from the University of Texas at Austin and a master’s degree in education policy from Harvard University.
Talarico’s mother, Tamara Causey, left his abusive birth father just seven weeks after his birth. She later married Mark Talarico, who gave him the family name. He credits his grandfather, a Baptist preacher he calls “Paw Paw” and the star of one of his campaign commercials, with instilling in him the belief that politics is rooted in serving others. He is currently pursuing a master’s degree in divinity at Austin Presbyterian Theological Seminary.
First elected to the Texas House in 2018, Talarico has built a reputation as one of the chamber’s most effective Democratic legislators in a body dominated by Republicans. He passed 60 bills into law, often working across the aisle—including legislation on mental health, capping the price of insulin, education funding, and criminal justice reform—making him one of the few Democrats in the Texas House with a meaningful legislative record. He resigned his seat in March to run for Senate full time.
Talarico has made affordability, public education, reproductive rights, and reining in what he calls the “Christian nationalist” agenda of Texas Republicans the centerpiece of his campaign. He has called for repealing Texas’ data center sales-tax exemption and has demanded his opponent Ken Paxton release internal records related to a “sweetheart” plea deal his office arranged for an admitted child predator. Talarico has been explicit that his faith informs his values without dictating others‘.
Talarico raised over $30 million in the second quarter of 2026—the largest quarterly haul of any active Senate race in the country. Approximately 97% of his contributions in Q2 were $100 or less, with 51% of his total campaign fundraising since he entered the race coming from donors giving under $200. He has been endorsed by the Senate Majority PAC and has attracted national attention as the Democrat with the best shot at winning a Texas statewide race since Ann Richards.
See where Talarico stands on the issues here.
The Republican: Ken Paxton
Ken Paxton, 63, is the outgoing Texas Attorney General who defeated incumbent US Sen. John Cornyn in a bitter Republican primary runoff in May, buoyed by a Trump endorsement and MAGA insurgency that labeled Cornyn a RINO for only voting for the president’s agenda 99% of the time. A fixture of Texas Republican politics for more than two decades, Paxton has served in the Texas House, the Texas Senate, and as attorney general since 2015, making a name for himself by filing over 100 lawsuits against the Biden-Harris administration. He is also one of the most legally embattled politicians in Texas history.
Paxton spent nine years under felony indictment on securities fraud charges before the Biden-era Department of Justice declined to prosecute the case in 2025 for reasons that still have not been disclosed. In 2023, eight of Paxton’s most senior aides reported him to the FBI on charges of bribery, abuse of office, and obstruction—allegations tied to his relationship with campaign donor and Austin real estate developer Nate Paul, who also employed a woman with whom Paxton acknowledged having an extramarital affair.
The Republican-controlled Texas House voted 121-23 to impeach—one of the largest bipartisan votes in Texas legislative history. The Texas Senate, in a trial presided over by Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick where no witnesses were called, acquitted him on all charges in a trial widely viewed by critics, Democrats, and some Republicans as heavily politicized and compromised by outside pressure.
Paxton’s personal finances have also drawn significant scrutiny. A New York Times investigation found Paxton, who earns $153,000 a year as attorney general, now owns at least 15 properties worth approximately $9 million across six states—including four luxury condominiums at a Utah resort, three homes in Florida, and land in Hawaii. Ten of the 15 were purchased in the last six years.
Additional reporting by The New York Times revealed Paxton co-founded a cell tower company, Premier Vertical Properties, in 2005 while serving as a Texas state representative and on the board of a Frisco hospital. The company placed a cell tower on the hospital’s campus and secured a lucrative lease with T-Mobile in 2006.
A ProPublica and Texas Tribune investigation further found Paxton appears to have voted in up to six elections using an address where he no longer lived—the same violation his office has prosecuted others for, a second-degree felony under Texas law punishable by up to 20 years in prison. Paxton’s campaign called the reporting “baseless” but did not identify a single specific inaccuracy.
Paxton has also been accused of giving a sweetheart plea deal to Adam Hoffman, a Waco attorney who pleaded guilty to reduced misdemeanor charges of repeatedly sexually abusing an 8-year-old boy. Paxton’s office has refused to release internal records related to the deal. The victim’s mother said: “This case was treated differently because of who Adam Hoffman was and who represented him… the Attorney General’s office under Ken Paxton … Ken Paxton must be held accountable.”
Paxton raised $9.3 million in his most recent fundraising quarter—less than a third of Talarico’s haul. He has accepted at least $448,000 from data center executives and industry PACs, according to NOTUS, while declining to answer a six-month-old legal question from Hood County about whether it has the authority to block data center construction.
See where Paxton stands on the issues here.
What to watch
Polls show the race in a statistical tie. Texas is home to 10% of all US House seats—and a Democratic Senate win here would be a political earthquake. The race is already one of the most expensive Senate contests in the country. Talarico’s small-donor fundraising advantage, Paxton’s scandal-ridden record, and a shifting demographic landscape have made November’s outcome genuinely uncertain for the first time in a generation.
