Reporting by Brandi D. Addison, USA Today Network
If The Old Farmer’s Almanac’s forecast is correct, many Texans may be pleasantly surprised by the rainfall outlook this fall — but the forecast varies depending on where you live.
The Almanac, which has been predicting weather (with varying accuracy) since 1818, recently released its extended weather forecast.
For the Lone Star State, the outlook is a mixed bag, with cooler, wetter conditions expected in some areas, while others could remain warmer and drier than normal.
What does the Old Farmer’s Almanac predict for Texas in fall 2026?
“Will our sweaters get more use this fall? It won’t feel like fall everywhere: Warmer than average weather settles over the nation’s interior this September and October — from the Northern Plains through the Heartland and into the Deep South,” the Almanac states. “Meanwhile, most of the eastern United States and the Pacific Coast are expected to be cooler than average.”
According to the forecast, northern Texas and Oklahoma are expected to experience slightly cooler-than-average temperatures this fall, with rainfall potentially running up to 4 inches above normal.
But the story changes farther south. Southern Texas, including the coast, is expected to be warmer than average during September and October, with precipitation slightly above average.
For much of West Texas, including areas from Lubbock northward and from Midland westward, the forecast points to a warmer, drier fall pattern. The Old Farmer’s Almanac’s High Plains region calls for above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall, suggesting drought-stressed areas may not see much relief as the season begins.
What the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts for the rest of the U.S.
Old Farmer’s Almanac fall forecast by region
- Northeast: Cooler and wetter than average.
- Atlantic Corridor: Cooler and drier than average, with less rainfall expected in September and October.
- Appalachians: Cooler and drier than normal, with below-average precipitation.
- Southeast: Slightly cooler than average, with drier conditions expected across much of the region.
- Florida: Cooler and drier in the north; cooler with slightly above-average rainfall in the south.
- Lower Lakes: Cooler in September before temperatures return closer to normal in October; rainfall near to slightly below average.
- Ohio Valley: Cooler early in the season, with drier-than-average conditions.
- Deep South: Cooler and drier in September, then warmer-than-average October.
- Upper Midwest: Cooler September followed by a slightly warmer October, with wetter conditions possible.
- Heartland: Slightly warmer in the north and cooler in the south, with rainfall increasing later in the season.
- High Plains: Warmer and drier than average.
- Intermountain: Cooler in the north, warmer in the south, with slightly above-average precipitation overall.
- Desert Southwest: Warmer September followed by a cooler October, with below-average rainfall.
- Pacific Northwest: Cooler and wetter than average.
- Pacific Southwest: Near-normal temperatures in September followed by a cooler October; rainfall varies by location.
- Alaska: Cooler in the north, warmer in the south, with below-average precipitation overall.
- Hawaii: Cooler than average with above-average rainfall possible in eastern areas.
How accurate is the Old Farmer’s Almanac?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac has published long-range weather predictions for more than two centuries, using a proprietary forecasting method it says combines solar activity, climate patterns and historical weather trends. The publication boasts 80% accuracy, though some experts claim it’s closer to 50%.
Meteorologists often caution that forecasts several months in advance come with significant uncertainty, especially at the local level.
When does fall 2026 begin?
The first official day of fall 2026 is Tuesday, Sept. 22, marking the autumnal equinox in the Northern Hemisphere.
The equinox occurs when the sun crosses the celestial equator, bringing nearly equal amounts of daylight and darkness around the world. After the equinox, days will continue to grow shorter and nights longer across Texas and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere until the winter solstice in December.
For meteorologists, however, fall begins earlier. The meteorological fall season starts Sept. 1 and runs through Nov. 30, aligning with the calendar months used to track seasonal weather patterns.
When do temperatures normally cool down in Texas?
Across most of Texas, temperatures finally begin to cool in October, with average highs finally dipping below the triple-digit mark.
Here’s a look at the earliest, latest and average of the last 100-degree days recorded across the state since 1940, according to data from the National Weather Service.
Corpus Christi
- Earliest: April 23 (1955)
- Latest: Oct. 17 (2012)
- Average: Aug. 14
Austin
- Earliest: June 13 (1942)
- Latest: Oct. 13 (2024)
- Average: Aug. 24
Amarillo
- Earliest: June 14 (2004)
- Latest: Sept. 19 (2024)
- Average: Aug. 5
Dallas-Fort Worth
- Earliest: July 13 (2004)
- Latest: Oct. 3 (1951)
- Average: Aug. 29
El Paso
- Earliest: June 18 (1941)
- Latest: Sept. 27 (2024)
- Average: Aug. 11
Houston
- Earliest: June 13 (2006)
- Latest: Sept. 27 (2005)
- Average: Aug. 15
Lubbock
- Earliest: May 11 (1962)
- Latest: Oct. 3 (2000)
- Average: Aug. 2
Midland-Odessa
- Earliest: June 9 (1988)
- Latest: Oct. 8 (1979)
- Average: Aug. 21
San Antonio
- Earliest: July 4 (1970)
- Latest: Oct. 4 (2023)
- Average: Aug. 26
Tyler
- Earliest: July 12 (1955)
- Latest: Sept. 26 (2005)
- Average: Aug. 21
Waco
- Earliest: July 22 (1971)
- Latest: Oct. 15 (2024)
- Average: Aug. 31
Wichita Falls
- Earliest: June 27 (1950)
- Latest: Oct. 17 (1972)
- Average: Sept. 5
Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the nation as the Weather Connect reporter for the USA Today Network and contributes to Texas Connect coverage across the state. She can be reached at baddison@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on Corpus Christi Caller Times.
