Politics

This South Texas race could decide the balance of power in Washington

Republicans redrew South Texas’ 34th District to unseat Democrat Vicente Gonzalez. Days before the election, he’s still standing, and a key forecaster now gives him the edge over Republican Eric Flores

South Texas crowd gathers for Democrats
Attendees listen to speakers at the Voto Latino "Ready, Go, Vote," rally for Democratic candidates Gina Hinojosa for Texas governor, James Talarico for the U.S. Senate, and Bobby Pulido for the U.S. House, in Weslaco, Texas, Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026, ahead of the midterm elections. (AP Photo/Michael Gonzalez)

Texas Republicans redrew the 34th Congressional District last year to give their party one more seat in Congress. On the final day of early voting and Election Day right around the corner, they still don’t have it.

Democrat US Rep. Vicente Gonzalez is defending the South Texas seat against Republican Eric Flores, a former federal prosecutor endorsed by President Donald Trump. The Cook Political Report rates the race “lean D,”  and it could decide the balance of power in Washington.

The stakes reach beyond the district. Gonzalez is one of just 13 House Democrats nationwide who hold a seat Trump carried, and his district is one of five that Texas Republicans redrew to favor their party, at Trump’s urging. If Flores wins, it would help Republicans hold the House. If Gonzalez holds on, it would be a sign that the GOP’s push to redraw maps mid-decade, and its gains with Hispanic voters in South Texas, have limits.

In the race’s final days, the Gonzalez campaign is casting the election as a referendum on Republican control in Washington.

“Republicans control the White House and Congress, and since day one promised South Texans lower prices and safer communities; it was a lie,” a Gonzalez campaign spokesperson told Courier Texas.

Democrat Vicente Gonzalez meets constituents.

The spokesperson pointed to what the campaign called “hyperaggressive ICE raids” that it said are separating families and causing a labor shortage in the district and in the state, and said working families are struggling to afford health care, groceries, and gas because of “reckless policies and an illegal war in Iran.”

In stark contrast, Gonzalez’s Republican opponent Eric Flores has praised President Trump’s “courage” and “patriotism” for launching that war, which he supports. 

The Flores campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

A South Texas map built for Republicans

The race took shape in 2025, when Trump urged Texas lawmakers to redraw the state’s congressional districts to favor Republicans. The new map cut part of Hidalgo County out of the district and pushed it north along the Gulf Coast to Gonzalez’s hometown of Corpus Christi. Under the new lines, Trump would have carried the district by about 10 points in 2024, the Texas Tribune reported. Gonzalez won the old version that year by less than three points, the closest margin of any Texas congressional race.

Flores has pointed to those numbers. “If you look at it, there are more Republican voters in this district,” he said on ValleyCentral’s Inside Valley Politics.

Republican Eric Flores.

The polls show a closer race. A Washington Post-Schar School poll this month found Gonzalez leading Flores 50% to 43%, with a margin of error of 5.4 points. A Texas Southern University poll in August found Gonzalez ahead by three points, within the margin of error. In the Post’s poll, Hispanic voters in the district favored Gonzalez by seven points, a much smaller edge than Democrats hold among Hispanic voters nationally.

Two pitches for South Texas

Gonzalez, who is seeking his sixth term in Congress, has cast himself as a moderate. He beat a democratic socialist challenger in the March primary by about 25 points and has distanced himself from the party’s left wing. He has campaigned on cost of living, pressing federal officials on how immigration enforcement affects housing costs, criticizing SNAP cuts, and pushing to restore Affordable Care Act premium tax credits, as Courier Texas has reported.

Flores, a Texas Army National Guard officer and former assistant US attorney, won the Republican nomination in a March primary.

He has also kept some distance from the president who endorsed him. His campaign dropped “Trump Endorsed” and “Republican” from its yard signs, and this month it sent a cease-and-desist letter over a Gonzalez billboard that showed Flores with Trump and touted his support of ICE. Flores has continued to promote the endorsement online, and on Tuesday he spoke at Trump’s rally in Corpus Christi.

Courier Texas has also reported on Flores’ silence on Trump’s tariffs and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. 

Election Day is Nov. 3.

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Brian McManus
Brian McManus Political Editor
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  • Brian McManus is Texas political editor at Courier Texas. A fourth-generation native Texan based in Houston, he covers the political and economic forces reshaping the state—including the data center boom, housing affordability, immigration enforcement, inequality, and the ways decisions made in Austin and Washington land on ordinary people across Texas.

    A veteran journalist and editor, he has held senior roles at Vice and BuzzFeed, and served as music editor at the Village Voice. In past lives he has also been a touring musician and a professional chef—careers that, more than he expected, inform how he thinks about the people and communities he covers today. Contact: brian@couriernewsroom.com | Instagram: @brianmctx